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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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