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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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