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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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