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Wednesday, 29 June 22
CHINA'S NEW PLAN FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT FOCUSES ON CONSUMPTION - FITCH RATINGS
 China’s focus on consumption penetration for renewable energy development in its recently released 14th five-year plan – 2021 to 2025 – rather than capacity installations, should add flexibility in adding installations and alleviate curtailment risk, says Fitch Ratings.
China targets for renewables to supply 33% to national power consumption by 2025, and for non-hydro renewables to contribute 18%; the two consumption quota targets are 4.3pp and 3.6pp higher than 2021 levels, respectively. Correspondingly, China expects to increase annual renewable generation to 3,300 terawatt hours by 2025, implying a CAGR of 7%-8% in the next four years.
The 14th five-year plan does not specify a target for renewable power capacity, unlike previous plans. This should allow for more flexibility on annual capacity additions in 2022-2025, which can instead be driven by power demand growth and the power system’s ability to consume the newly added installations.
Such flexibility in capacity installations should also alleviate curtailment risk from oversupply, supported by the fast development of storage systems, combined with the well-planned locations of new projects, including at large renewable bases that will contribute the majority of new installations under the plan. Most renewable bases will be located at load centres, such as Hebei and Shandong, or in desert and deserted areas, including those in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, where land is cheaper, renewable resources are abundant and UHV lines – which transmit power intra-provincially to specific load centres – are established or will become available.
New projects with grid offtakes can sell pre-agreed volume at fixed prices, but the amount of renewable power generated in excess of the offtake volume and projects without grid offtakes will be traded in the market. The 14th five-year plan encourages renewable generation companies and end-users to enter long-term contracts. Trading premiums are likely to occur in coastal regions, where renewable resources are limited, but demand for green energy is increasingly robust, while renewable power produced in provinces with excess supply may be traded at a discount.
Fitch Ratings, China also expects stronger enforceability of the 14th five year plan, which was released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s central regulator, jointly with eight central-government bodies, including the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Housing and Rural-Urban Development and Ministry of Ecology and Environment, which are responsible for approving and facilitating the development of renewable projects or monitoring the consumption levels. Previous plans were normally introduced by NDRC alone.
Fitch further expects China to maintain strong renewable installation growth, despite the lack of capacity targets specified for end-2025. We estimate that China is likely to boost annual wind and solar power capacity by 100-110 gigawatts (GW) on average, assuming national power demand grows at a CAGR of 4.7% in the next four years. Our estimated capacity additions are comparable with the 103GW installed in 2021, but below the 2020 peak of 120GW. However, provincial and corporate level end-2025 targets, if added, suggest faster capacity additions. We thus expect capex and leverage at most state-owned power generation companies to stay high over the medium term.
For the first time, the five-year plan sets goals on the usage of non-power renewable energy, such as heating by solar, geothermal and biomass. This may encourage favourable policies on integrated energy and support the earnings of city-gas operators and national oil companies, which are becoming active in developing non-carbon energy businesses.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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