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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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