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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
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