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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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