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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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