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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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