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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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