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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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