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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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