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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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