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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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