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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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