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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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