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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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