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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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