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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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