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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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