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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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