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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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