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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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