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Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and developing countries continue to fall behind due to shortages of anti-crown vaccines. The bank raised its forecast by 1.5 points to 5.6% for global growth in 2021 with China touching 8.5% and the US at 6.8%.
Europe has been lagging the stimulus momentum of the US, but recently they made a decisive step with the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde advising investors to prepare for a new guidance on monetary support in 10 days and heralded the possibility of new measures for next year to support the eurozone economy after the current bond emergency program expires. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, just days after the ECB raised its inflation target to 2%, Lagarde said there would be some interesting changes.
The West has been a major driver of demand for containers trade so far in 2021. Supply chain bottlenecks have sent shipping costs at record high levels on containers with bulkers following with freight rates reaching more than decade highs. The shortage of raw materials has pushed up prices and importers are raising the cost of goods, fueling fears of an inflationary spiral.
As freight rates have skyrocketed, containers orderbook has increased sharply at approx. 21% of the fleet, the highest level since Q4 2015, while the SnP activity on the sector has increased to the highest level ever recorded for 1H – with more than 300 transactions recorded. Despite the increase in transactions and the 100% to 200% spike in asset values particularly for intermediate TEU units since the beginning of the year, the market consensus is that there is more room to go. Until more vessels’ supply hits the market from 2023 onwards and/ or when current shortages rebalance with demand normalizing, it looks like container owners have an extended runway to take advantage of the upside.
Depending on the trade growth scenario over the next years, fleet additions across shipping sectors are expected to rise accordingly and dictate the pace of asset values evolution amongst other factors.
The BIMCO ICS Seafarer Workforce 2021 report has elaborated on 3 commercial fleet development scenarios, with low, stable and higher growth. In the low growth scenario, there will be an average of 567 ships entering the fleet each year, a significant decrease from the average of 955 ships in the baseline scenario. In a scenario of stable growth, the fleet will grow at a slower pace and is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.75%. If world trade is better, the global fleet is expected to exceed 80,000 ships in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 1.75%. BIMCO says the course of the fleet also depends on the course of world trade.
By Zisis Stylianos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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