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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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