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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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