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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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