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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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