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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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