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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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