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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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