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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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