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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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