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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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