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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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