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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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