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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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