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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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