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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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