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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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