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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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