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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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