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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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