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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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