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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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