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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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