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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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