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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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