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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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