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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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