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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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