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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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