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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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