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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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