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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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